Voters rejected Voice due to fears of division: ANU study

28 Nov 2023

42 per cent of those who said they would have voted 鈥榶es鈥 in January ended up voting 鈥榥o鈥 in October 2023

Two-in-three Australians, 66.1 per cent, who voted 鈥榥o鈥 to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament said they rejected the proposed constitutional change because it would divide the nation, according to new research from The Australian 精东传媒app University (ANU).


The survey, which examined the views and voting behaviour of more than 4,200 Australians, is the most comprehensive study of the 14 October referendum and the factors that led to its rejection at the polls.

 

Less than four-in-10 Australians voted in favour of the proposed Voice, with all states and territories, except the ACT, also voting against it.

 

The study, which tracked voters鈥 views between January and October 2023, also found that very few people switched from voting 鈥榥o鈥 to 鈥榶es鈥 during the referendum campaign.

 

鈥淥f those who said they would have voted 鈥榥o鈥 when asked in January, only 4.8 per cent ended up voting 鈥榶es鈥,鈥 study co-author Professor Nicholas Biddle said.

 

鈥淚n contrast, 42 per cent of those who said they would have voted 鈥榶es鈥 in January ended up voting 鈥榥o鈥 in October 2023.

 

鈥淥ur study also shows the 鈥榶es鈥 vote declined much more for those who would have voted for the Coalition than for the other two party groups. The 鈥榶es鈥 vote among Coalition voters was roughly one-quarter of what it was in January 2023.鈥

 

The survey provides a comprehensive overview of which Australians were likely to vote 鈥榶es鈥 and which Australians were likely to vote 鈥榥o鈥.

 

Females were more likely to vote 鈥榶es鈥 than males, as were younger Australians, with voters aged 18 to 24 more than twice as likely to be in favour of the proposed constitutional change. Education was also a strong factor in determining how Australians voted.

 

鈥淭he 鈥榶es鈥 vote was predicted by four Gs 鈥 gender, generation, graduation and geography,鈥 study co-author Professor Ian McAllister said.

鈥溾橬o鈥 voters were more likely to be male, older, speaking a language other than English at home, with low levels of education, living outside of capital cities, and living in low-income households.

 

鈥淥ur study also identified those people who were most likely to change their vote. 

For example, over the course of the campaign, the fall in support of the Voice was much larger among those who spoke a language other than English at home.

 

鈥淭here were also large flows from those intending to vote 鈥榶es鈥 in January 2023 to actually voting 鈥榥o鈥 in October 2023 among less educated voters and those with lower incomes.鈥

 

Voters鈥 perceptions on the rights of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were also a major factor in the referendum鈥檚 defeat, according to the survey鈥檚 findings.

 

鈥淢any Australians feel that special rights for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians are unfair, with a sizable number of Australians also thinking that the reason for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander disadvantage is a lack of effort,鈥 Professor Biddle said.

 

鈥淭hose Australians who hold these views were far more likely to vote 鈥榥o鈥 than those that did not.鈥

 

Despite the defeat of the referendum, the vast majority of Australian voters 鈥 87.2 per cent 鈥 think Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people should be able to decide their way of life for themselves, according to the survey.

 

鈥淭his is one of the biggest paradoxes of this referendum result,鈥 Professor Biddle said.

 

鈥淓ven after the referendum, almost nine-in-10 Australians think it is important for First Nations peoples to have a voice or say in matters that affect them. This includes around three-quarters of 鈥榥o鈥 voters.鈥

 

Professor McAllister said: 鈥淥ur study also shows Australians think that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians continue to suffer levels of disadvantage that are both caused by past government policies and that justified extra government assistance.

 

鈥淗owever, it is clear from our findings that voters did not see the Voice model put to them as the right approach to remedy that disadvantage.鈥

 

The survey also looked at a range of political attitudes and how they changed over the campaign. There have been declines in confidence in government, satisfaction with the direction of democracy and trust in some institutions in 2022 and 2023.

 

鈥淒eclines were greater for those who voted 鈥榶es鈥 in October 2023 than those that voted 鈥榥o鈥, and there is clearly an interaction between voters鈥 views on political issues and how they ended up voting,鈥 Professor Biddle said.

 

The survey results are available on the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods .